Ukutshaya iDrift phantsi koMsi weRhafu: Ukusuka "kuMdlalo wokuNgcakaza weHlabathi" ukuya "kwiNqanaba lesihogo lokusinda kwintolongo"

1, Okwangoku imeko ye Imfazwe yerhafu: xa 'uxinzelelo oluphezulu' ludibana' nemilinganiselo elinganayo'

Imfazwe yerhafu phakathi kweChina kunye ne-United States ngo-2025 iye yanda kwinqanaba elithi "umlingo wokwenene" - i-United States ibeke intlawulo ye-125% kwiimpahla zaseShayina ezithunyelwa e-United States, kwaye i-China iye yabuyisela ngaxeshanye kwi-125%. Umthamo wokurhweba phakathi kwala macala mabini uye wehla ukusuka kwi-153 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2024 ukuya ngaphantsi kwe-20 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwikota yokuqala ye-2025, phantse "i-zero decoupling". Ububhanxa balo mdlalo bulele

'Ukusebenza kweDijithali': Umrhumo we-125% uthelekiseka 'ne-nuclear deterrence', kodwa umphumo wayo ufana nokuhlawulisa 'irhafu yomoya' kwixesha apho amaqanda e-supermarket axabisa i-$ 30- Abathengi baseMelika banyanzeliswa ukuba bahlawule ukusebenza kwezopolitiko, kwaye inkcitho yonyaka yamaqela aphakathi kunye namaqela anengeniso ephantsi iye yanyuka nge-$ 3000-5.

'I-Supply Chain Guerrilla War': Iinkampani zaseTshayina zimanyene zaba 'ziirhafu ze-ninjas', ezithumela kumazwe esithathu anjengeMexico neVietnam, zenza ikhonkco elingunxantathu 'Yenziwe eTshayina-Idityaniswe eMexico-Ithengiswe eUnited States', kwaye ijika ngamandla imfazwe yerhafu ibe 'ngumdlalo we-arbitrage welizwe'

• I uburharha abamnyama ye ishishini: Kwimeko yangoku yokuqokelela rhoqo amaxabiso, amashumi eminyaka ende ingxaki yokulawula iziyobisi e-United States iye yasonjululwa ngoko nangoko. Ishishini lamachiza, elalinengeniso ekuqaleni, libonakala lincinci kakhulu ebusweni bempahla yaseTshayina phantsi kwemvelaphi ye-125% yeerhafu. Abathengisi beziyobisi bavule iivenkile zamaTshayina eUnited States baza baqalisa ukuthengisa izinto ezincinci zeYiwu. Umongameli uTrump kulindeleke ukuba abe ngumongameli olandelayo ozakuphumelela imbasa yeNobel Peace Prize emva koMongameli Obama

I-2, iNyaniso yoMlingo: Utshintsho lwezoShishino olubangelwa yiMfazwe yeRhafu

1. Amaqhinga eGuerrilla kwikhonkco lokubonelela

• "Imbovane ihamba" amalungiselelo: abavelisi becuba lomlomo bachitha imidiza yomlomo kwi "peppermint essence (10% tariff)", "packaging paper (5% tariff)", "nicotine extract (ukugcinwa okwethutyana kwindawo edityanisiweyo)" ukwenzela isibhengezo samasiko kwiibhetshi, kwaye emva koko ihlanganiselwe "kwiimpahla ezisemthethweni ezithengiswayo zaseMelika"
• I ubugcisa "boluhlu lwasemva": Uphawu oluthile lubhalisa imveliso yalo njenge "Herbal Refreshing Tablets", yaprinta ukupakishwa kunye nezicatshulwa ezivela kwi "Compendium of Materia Medica", kwaye yatshintsha ngempumelelo uluhlu lweerhafu ukusuka "kwiimveliso zecuba" ukuya "kwizongezo zokutya" (nangona uLi Shizhen engazange akhankanye inikotini)

2. Ukuguquguquka kwemeko ye-Quantum kwinkqubo yexabiso

• Iivenkile eziluncedo eUnited States zibone "ixabiso lokuguquguquka kwerhafu": xa iindaba zasekuseni zikhankanya ukunyuka kwerhafu, ixabiso lenyuka nge-5%, kwaye xa i-China ikhupha umqondiso wothethathethwano, ixabiso lehla nge-3% (incwadana yoqeqesho lwabasebenzi ingqindilili kunesikhokelo sokunyuka kwenzala ye-Federal Reserve)
• I-e-commerce yaseTshayina enqamleza umda idlala "ingxowa-mali yothango": thenga iibhokisi ezintathu kwaye ufumane i-inshurensi yomrhumo njengesipho. Ukuba izinga lerhafu liyenyuka ngeentsuku ezingama-30, uya kufumana imbuyekezo yemali (imifuziselo yenyani ngelixa ulila)

3. Ukusetyenziswa kweSchizophrenic kwabasebenzisi

• Umalume obomvu waseMelika uqalekisiwe 'i-China yeba inikotini yethu' ngelixa ikhangela eAmazon 'indlela yokusebenzisa i-VPN ukuthenga i-imeyile ethe ngqo ye-Shenzhen'
• Umninimzi wekhontrakthi yaseTshayina ufumana ileta evela kwigqwetha le-White House emini kwaye isasaza ngqo kwi-TikTok ebusuku, ikhwaza "Ixabiso lecuba esiliselayo libaleka ngokuchasene nerhafu, sapho lwam.

3, IsiKhokelo sokuSinda: Ukutsiba iSifundo sesithathu kwiCable yePolisi

1. Ukuzilimela "I-Compliance Assassin"

• Ukuqesha ingcali yangaphambili yokuxoxisana ye-WTO njengomcebisi ukuba agxininise ekuboneleleni okungaqondakaliyo kweSiqendu XX seSivumelwano Jikelele kwiiRhafu kunye noRhwebo (Isiphelo: Icuba yomlomo inokuchazwa ngokuthi "izixhobo zokunyamekela ngomlomo")
• Ukuseka "iZiko lokuPakisha izithako zeNicotine" kuMmandla woRhwebo oluSimahla ukunciphisa uvakalelo lwerhafu yezinto eziphambili ekrwada ukuya kwinqanaba elingaphantsi kunelo lamanzi ezimbiwa.

2. Isandla sasekhohlo kunye nesandla sokunene kwisicwangciso sesandla kwimarike

• Uhlelo olukhethekileyo lwaseMntla MelikaUmzekelo, ukongeza isicatshulwa se-cranberry, ukupakishwa kunye ne-MAGA kunye neSitatimende seNkululeko (umxholo we-nicotine we-15% ophezulu kunokuqala), ukongeza i-burger yenkomo, i-pizza, kunye neencasa ze-steak,

3. I-Demolitism yeTekhnoloji

• Ukufaka isicelo ye 'I-Blockchain Tariff Traceability Patent': Ukwenza ukuba yonke iMolekyuli yeNicotine inqumle iBorder Flow ngeDijithali Irhafu IBill (iWall Street ibona iWeb5.0)

4, Imbonakalo yexesha elizayo: Xa 'ihlabathi jikelele' lisiba' intlungu yehlabathi '

• Ixesha elifutshane (1-2 iminyaka): "I-Mexican Trap" i-US Customs yenza uhlolo olumangalisayo kurhwebo lwezothutho lweqela lesithathu, lithatha i-1 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ezixabisa "icuba ezinophawu", ikhuthaza ngokuthe ngqo uphuhliso olukhawulezayo lwezifundo zoqeqesho lolwimi lwesiSpanish eTshayina.
• Ixesha eliphakathi (3-5 iminyaka): ukuzala uhlobo olutsha lwe "tariff intermediaries": iinkampani ezinceda ngokukodwa ukubala "indlela yokwahlula i-25% yerhafu ibe yi-5% yerhafu yesicatshulwa sesityalo+10% yerhafu yokupakishwa+10% yerhafu yezinto"
• Ixesha elide (iminyaka emi-5-10): Kusenokubakho "i-Customs War Survivors Alliance", kunye neemfuno zobulungu ezibandakanya "ubuncinci ukuba zidweliswe kuluhlu olungwevu ngamasiko amazwe amathathu" kunye "nokuqonda ijagoni yesibhengezo se-nicotine ezintathu okanye ngaphezulu"

Ngoku yona kubonakala ngathi

undoqo woku
Uluhlu lwamaxabiso kukuba abezopolitiko basebenzisa imidiza njengeetshiphusi
ukudlala "umdlalo wamandla" -
Abathengi baseMelika bahlawula "irhafu yokusebenza kwezopolitiko" eWal Mart, kwaye abavelisi baseTshayina baye baqhelisela "i-quantum fluctuation customs declaration" kwinkqubo yamasiko,
kodwa abona baphulukeneyo ngokwenene ngoonombombiya kude lee e-Antarctic abathi bafolele ukuntywila elangeni ekhaya kwaye ngequbuliso bafumane isaziso sentlawulo.

Oonombombiya abonelisekanga kwaye bayabuza, "Ndingabuza ukuba kuyenzeka na ukuhlawula kunye nezihlobo zam ezikude 'iQinyini zeQ